4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 18 at the 40

Jacksonville Jaguars 17 – Pittsburgh Steelers 10

What Actually Happened

(10:22) 9-L.Cooke punts 40 yards to end zone, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.55 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.39 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 40, worth -2.04 EP
KICK -0.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.73 EP
  • 41% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.71 EP
PUNT -0.50 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.41 EP