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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 9 at the 39

Jacksonville Jaguars 20 – Pittsburgh Steelers 10

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 9-L.Cooke punts 37 yards to PIT 2, Center-46-R.Matiscik, downed by JAX-26-A.Johnson.

The Three Options

GO -0.76 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +1.36 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 39, worth -1.78 EP
KICK +0.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.57 EP
  • 38% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 48, worth -2.12 EP
PUNT -0.92 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.92 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.06 EP