4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 6 at the 71

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 3

What Actually Happened

(9:33) 6-P.Harvin punts 51 yards to JAX 20, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 39-J.Agnew to JAX 32 for 12 yards (13-M.Boykin).

The Three Options

GO -1.42 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.01 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 71, worth -3.93 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -0.91 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 29, worth -0.91 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model