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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 2 at the 41

Pittsburgh Steelers 10 – Jacksonville Jaguars 20

What Actually Happened

(:05) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass deep right INTERCEPTED by 26-A.Johnson at JAX 6. 26-A.Johnson ran ob at JAX 29 for 23 yards.

The Three Options

GO +0.42 EP
What Happened
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +0.82 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 41, worth -0.09 EP
KICK +1.64 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +3.05 EP
  • 44% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -0.18 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 12, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.22 EP