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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 3 at the 32

Jacksonville Jaguars 3 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(5:59) 10-B.McManus 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +1.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +3.89 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 32, worth -1.74 EP
KICK +0.73 EP
What Happened
  • 77% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 23% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 42, worth -2.47 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EP