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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 2 at the 67

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 6

What Actually Happened

(4:35) 6-P.Harvin punts 47 yards to JAX 20, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 39-J.Agnew.

The Three Options

GO -0.25 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.97 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 67, worth -3.59 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.68 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 25, worth -0.68 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP