4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 14 at the 79

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(13:30) 5-T.Townsend punts 49 yards to DEN 30, Center-41-J.Winchester. 19-M.Mims to KC 39 for 31 yards (54-L.Chenal).

The Three Options

GO -2.59 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.36 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 79, worth -4.77 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -2.53 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 36, worth -2.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model