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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 17 at the 36

Denver Broncos 14 – Kansas City Chiefs 9

What Actually Happened

(11:24) 9-R.Dixon punts 31 yards to KC 5, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 12-M.Hardman MUFFS catch, touched at KC 6, RECOVERED by DEN-41-D.Sanders at KC 10. Penalty on KC, Defensive Too Many Men on Field, declined.

The Three Options

GO -0.10 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.66 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 36, worth -1.57 EP
KICK +0.51 EP
Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.00 EP
  • 35% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 46, worth -2.29 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.58 EP