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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 1 at the 66

Kansas City Chiefs 9 – Denver Broncos 21

What Actually Happened

(9:38) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 87-T.Kelce to KC 42 for 8 yards (6-P.Locke).

The Three Options

GO +0.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 76% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.55 EP
  • 24% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 66, worth -3.52 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.06 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 24, worth -1.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model