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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 16 at the 79

Denver Broncos 21 – Kansas City Chiefs 9

What Actually Happened

(6:43) 9-R.Dixon punts 43 yards to KC 36, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 12-M.Hardman to KC 31 for -5 yards (1-Tr.Smith).

The Three Options

GO -3.08 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +0.81 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 79, worth -4.65 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -2.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 36, worth -2.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model