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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 3 at the 4

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Denver Broncos 7

What Actually Happened

(1:14) 7-H.Butker 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +3.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.35 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 4, worth +0.00 EP
KICK +1.61 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21, worth -0.99 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.65 EP