Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 4 at the 71

Denver Broncos 7 – Kansas City Chiefs 3

(14:19) 9-R.Dixon punts 46 yards to KC 25, Center-48-M.Fraboni, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.03 EP

50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.84 EP
50% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 71, worth -3.89 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model