4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 3 at the 7

Minnesota Vikings 7 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(10:16) 1-G.Joseph 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.

The Three Options

GO +2.46 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.77 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 7, worth -0.50 EP
KICK +1.32 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.39 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21, worth -1.28 EP
PUNT -0.68 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.68 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.14 EP