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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 3 at the 55

Minnesota Vikings 10 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(5:02) 14-R.Wright punts 40 yards to GB 15, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 11-J.Reed.

The Three Options

GO -0.13 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.50 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 55, worth -3.16 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.78 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 16, worth -0.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.65 EP