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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 6 at the 77

Green Bay Packers 0 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(12:49) 19-D.Whelan punts 59 yards to MIN 18, Center-42-M.Orzech. 4-B.Powell to MIN 34 for 16 yards (35-C.Ballentine).

The Three Options

GO -1.50 EP
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.94 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 77, worth -4.31 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 34, worth -1.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model