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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q3
Minnesota Vikings
4th & 1 at the 12
Minnesota Vikings 10 – Green Bay Packers 3
What Actually Happened
(11:06) 8-K.Cousins up the middle to GB 10 for 2 yards (7-Q.Walker).
The Three Options
GO
+3.19 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +4.99 EP
- 34% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 12, worth -0.29 EP
KICK
+1.71 EP
- 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
- 4% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 22, worth -1.00 EP
PUNT
-0.15 EP
- Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
