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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 16 at the 21

Green Bay Packers 10 – Minnesota Vikings 24

What Actually Happened

(4:54) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love scrambles up the middle to MIN 6 for 15 yards (22-H.Smith).

The Three Options

GO +0.95 EP
What Happened
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.66 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21, worth -0.52 EP
KICK +1.91 EP
Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.23 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 31, worth -1.08 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.96 EP