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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 5 at the 71

Minnesota Vikings 24 – Green Bay Packers 10

What Actually Happened

(2:53) 14-R.Wright punts 47 yards to GB 24, Center-42-A.DePaola. 25-K.Nixon to GB 43 for 19 yards (59-N.Vigil; 20-J.Ward). PENALTY on GB-45-Er.Wilson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at GB 30.

The Three Options

GO -1.55 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +0.73 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 71, worth -3.57 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.65 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 29, worth -1.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model