4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 1 at the 24

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(7:11) 1-G.Joseph 42 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.

The Three Options

GO +2.53 EP
Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.30 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 24, worth -1.12 EP
KICK +1.21 EP
What Happened
  • 87% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 34, worth -1.94 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.32 EP