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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 8 at the 73

New England Patriots 0 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(13:11) 17-B.Baringer punts 49 yards to MIA 24, Center-49-J.Cardona. 0-B.Berrios pushed ob at MIA 36 for 12 yards (41-B.Schooler).

The Three Options

GO -2.36 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.35 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 73, worth -4.50 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -2.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 31, worth -2.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model