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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 1 at the 8

Miami Dolphins 7 – New England Patriots 7

What Actually Happened

(7:31) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left to 10-T.Hill to NE 6 for 2 yards (27-M.Bryant). NE-27-M.Bryant was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO +3.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.55 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 8, worth -0.21 EP
KICK +1.72 EP
  • 97% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 21, worth -0.97 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model