4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 1 at the 55

Miami Dolphins 0 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(12:02) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left to 17-J.Waddle to NE 38 for 17 yards (27-M.Bryant).

The Three Options

GO +1.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +3.10 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 55, worth -2.76 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.33 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 16, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model