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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 3 at the 78

New England Patriots 10 – Miami Dolphins 24

What Actually Happened

(14:46) 17-B.Baringer punts 63 yards to MIA 15, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.66 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +0.81 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 78, worth -4.50 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -1.92 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 35, worth -1.92 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model