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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q1
Miami Dolphins
4th & 11 at the 39
Miami Dolphins 0 – New England Patriots 0
What Actually Happened
(10:01) 16-J.Bailey punts 39 yards to end zone, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Touchback.
The Three Options
GO
+0.34 EP
Model's Pick
-
33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.49 EP
- 67% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 39, worth -1.67 EP
KICK
-0.03 EP
- 50% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
- 50% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 48, worth -2.49 EP
PUNT
+0.21 EP
What Happened
- New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth +0.21 EP
The Verdict
Chose PUNT
✓ matched the model
