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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 3 at the 3

New England Patriots 10 – Miami Dolphins 24

What Actually Happened

(8:33) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short right to 7-J.Smith-Schuster for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +2.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.62 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 3, worth -0.06 EP
KICK +1.60 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 21, worth -1.11 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model