Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 14 at the 79

New England Patriots 17 – Miami Dolphins 31

What Actually Happened

(2:00) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass incomplete deep middle to 81-D.Douglas (29-B.Jones) [92-Z.Sieler]. MIA-29-B.Jones was injured during the play. His return is Questionable. PENALTY on NE-7-J.Smith-Schuster, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 10 yards, enforced at NE 21.

The Three Options

GO -2.07 EP

What Happened

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.17 EP
71% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 79, worth -3.38 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.87 EP