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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 2

Indianapolis Colts 7 – New Orleans Saints 7

What Actually Happened

(14:52) 7-M.Gay 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +4.32 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.44 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 2, worth +0.76 EP
KICK +2.25 EP
What Happened
  • 99% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.29 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 21, worth -0.46 EP
PUNT +0.20 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth +0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +2.06 EP