Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 4 at the 69

Indianapolis Colts 0 – New Orleans Saints 0

(13:31) 8-R.Sanchez punts 52 yards to NO 17, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 22-R.Shaheed to NO 25 for 8 yards (43-T.Denbow, 85-A.Ogletree).

The Three Options

GO -0.86 EP

48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.29 EP
52% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 69, worth -3.80 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model