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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 24

Indianapolis Colts 17 – New Orleans Saints 21

What Actually Happened

(:26) 7-M.Gay 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +2.35 EP
Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +3.80 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 24, worth -0.40 EP
KICK +2.19 EP
What Happened
  • 89% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.57 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 34, worth -0.81 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model