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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 4 at the 80

Indianapolis Colts 20 – New Orleans Saints 21

What Actually Happened

(9:34) 8-R.Sanchez punts 53 yards to NO 27, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 22-R.Shaheed to NO 42 for 15 yards (35-C.Lammons).

The Three Options

GO -1.78 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +1.02 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 80, worth -4.54 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.92 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 37, worth -1.92 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model