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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 6 at the 39

New Orleans Saints 21 – Indianapolis Colts 20

What Actually Happened

(7:31) 39-L.Hedley punts 36 yards to IND 3, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-27-I.Yiadom.

The Three Options

GO +0.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.80 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 39, worth -2.12 EP
KICK +0.11 EP
  • 63% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 37% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 48, worth -2.83 EP
PUNT -0.28 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP