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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 6 at the 71

Indianapolis Colts 20 – New Orleans Saints 28

What Actually Happened

(14:55) 8-R.Sanchez punts 56 yards to NO 15, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 22-R.Shaheed to NO 24 for 9 yards (41-G.Stuard).

The Three Options

GO -1.45 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.87 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 71, worth -3.83 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -0.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 29, worth -0.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model