Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 10 at the 73

Indianapolis Colts 27 – New Orleans Saints 35

(3:55) 8-R.Sanchez punts 40 yards to NO 33, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.

The Three Options

GO -2.09 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.32 EP
66% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 73, worth -3.84 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model