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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Buffalo Bills
4th & 1 at the 1
Buffalo Bills 3 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0
What Actually Happened
(15:00) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short left to 86-D.Kincaid (35-J.Dean).
The Three Options
GO
+4.87 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
67% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.64 EP
- 33% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 1, worth +1.25 EP
KICK
+2.63 EP
- 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.66 EP
- 1% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.09 EP
PUNT
+0.64 EP
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.64 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
