Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 8 at the 97

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Buffalo Bills 3

(14:04) 5-J.Camarda punts 44 yards to TB 47, Center-97-Z.Triner. 11-D.Harty to TB 23 for 24 yards (32-J.Hayes).

The Three Options

GO -3.93 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 89, worth -0.62 EP
60% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 97, worth -6.17 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (114 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model