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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 8 at the 46

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10 – Buffalo Bills 17

What Actually Happened

(:19) 5-J.Camarda punts 46 yards to end zone, Center-97-Z.Triner, Touchback. Kick through end zone.

The Three Options

GO +0.04 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +2.01 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 46, worth -0.98 EP
KICK +0.28 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.82 EP
  • 63% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -1.19 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 13, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.33 EP