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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 3 at the 57

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10 – Buffalo Bills 24

What Actually Happened

(7:51) 5-J.Camarda punts 48 yards to BUF 9, impetus ends at BUF 19, Center-97-Z.Triner. 11-D.Harty pushed ob at BUF 18 for 9 yards (41-K.Kieft; 52-K.Britt). PENALTY on TB-32-J.Hayes, Illegal Touch Kick, 5 yards, enforced at BUF 18.

The Three Options

GO -0.22 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.52 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 57, worth -3.14 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.81 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 17, worth -0.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.59 EP