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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q1
Buffalo Bills
4th & 5 at the 19
Buffalo Bills 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0
What Actually Happened
(8:08) 2-T.Bass 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
The Three Options
GO
+2.10 EP
-
43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.30 EP
- 57% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 19, worth -0.31 EP
KICK
+2.14 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
- 92% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
- 8% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 29, worth -0.92 EP
PUNT
+0.32 EP
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.32 EP
The Verdict
Chose KICK
✓ matched the model
