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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 1 at the 51

Dallas Cowboys 14 – Philadelphia Eagles 14

What Actually Happened

(2:33) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 87-J.Ferguson to PHI 40 for 11 yards (17-N.Dean; 31-K.Byard).

The Three Options

GO +0.84 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.28 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 51, worth -2.58 EP
KICK -1.37 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -2.58 EP
PUNT -0.66 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 14, worth -0.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model