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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 3 at the 33

Dallas Cowboys 14 – Philadelphia Eagles 14

What Actually Happened

(1:20) 17-B.Aubrey 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +1.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.58 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 33, worth -1.33 EP
KICK +0.89 EP
What Happened
  • 73% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.00 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 43, worth -2.07 EP
PUNT -0.28 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model