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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 1 at the 68

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(11:30) 1-J.Hurts up the middle to PHI 34 for 2 yards (33-D.Clark).

The Three Options

GO +0.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.97 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 68, worth -3.77 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.60 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 26, worth -0.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model