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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 3 at the 27

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(6:17) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 88-D.Goedert pushed ob at DAL 12 for 15 yards.

The Three Options

GO +2.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.64 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 27, worth -0.56 EP
KICK +1.81 EP
  • 84% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.48 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 37, worth -1.57 EP
PUNT +0.36 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth +0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model