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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 1 at the 33

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

What Actually Happened

(2:28) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep left to 88-C.Lamb to PHI 4 for 29 yards (32-R.Blankenship).

The Three Options

GO +1.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.69 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 33, worth -1.89 EP
KICK +0.50 EP
  • 73% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 43, worth -2.51 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model