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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 5 at the 55

Green Bay Packers 7 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(7:38) 19-D.Whelan punts 47 yards to LA 8, Center-42-M.Orzech. 81-A.Trammell to LA 20 for 12 yards (45-Er.Wilson). PENALTY on LA-18-B.Skowronek, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LA 20.

The Three Options

GO -0.30 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.83 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 55, worth -2.77 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.74 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 16, worth -0.74 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP