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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 10 at the 34

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Green Bay Packers 7

What Actually Happened

(1:47) 8-L.Havrisik 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.

The Three Options

GO +0.25 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.16 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 34, worth -1.60 EP
KICK +0.61 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 44, worth -2.17 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model