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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 16 at the 58

Green Bay Packers 10 – Los Angeles Rams 3

What Actually Happened

(13:44) 19-D.Whelan punts 42 yards to LA 16, Center-42-M.Orzech. 81-A.Trammell to LA 27 for 11 yards (35-C.Ballentine; 6-D.Leavitt).

The Three Options

GO -1.36 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.02 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 58, worth -2.96 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.53 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 18, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model