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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 1 at the 16

Green Bay Packers 10 – Los Angeles Rams 3

What Actually Happened

(9:11) 17-A.Carlson 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

The Three Options

GO +3.00 EP
Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.95 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 16, worth -0.72 EP
KICK +1.70 EP
What Happened
  • 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 26, worth -1.16 EP
PUNT -0.28 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.30 EP