Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 6 at the 71

Los Angeles Rams 3 – Green Bay Packers 13

(8:39) 42-E.Evans punts 65 yards to GB 6, Center-47-A.Ward. 11-J.Reed to GB 28 for 22 yards (24-R.Freeman; 59-T.Reeder).

The Three Options

GO -1.54 EP

45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.59 EP
55% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 71, worth -4.08 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model