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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 2 at the 72

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(11:28) 6-A.Cole punts 69 yards to NYG 3, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 80-G.Olszewski pushed ob at NYG 20 for 17 yards (51-M.Koonce).

The Three Options

GO -0.60 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.71 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 72, worth -4.06 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.27 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 30, worth -1.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EP