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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 3 at the 73

New York Giants 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

What Actually Happened

(9:17) 6-J.Gillan punts 38 yards to LV 35, Center-59-C.Kreiter, downed by NYG-47-C.Brown.

The Three Options

GO -1.36 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.28 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 73, worth -4.35 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.67 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 31, worth -1.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EP